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TITLE: SURVEYING SURVEYS: AN ANALYSIS OF PUBLIC OPINION SURVEYS AND ITS EFFECTS ON THE 2004 AND THE 2010 PRESIDENTIAL AND VICE-PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION RESULTS


ABSTRACT:

This dissertation examines whether public opinion surveys created an impact on the voters’ preference during the 2004 and 2010 electoral campaign. Public opinion surveys have always been of general public interest. It has been condemned as a political mechanism and black propaganda by political candidates and analysts alike. Yet, the print and broadcast media treat poll results as main headlines. To analyze the impact of the publication of opinion polls to voters, this dissertation examined the result of a survey conducted among 385 Metro Manila registered voters. The researchers have also interviewed political analysts, newspaper editors, and a campaign manager to get a professional perspective on this issue. A content analysis of 16 presidential and vice-presidential pre-election surveys administered on election periods covered in this study as well as four official COMELEC results has been conducted to know if public opinion surveys influence and predict the outcome of the presidential and vice-presidential elections. Opinion poll results were clearly reflected in the outcome of the actual election results covered in this study, but its ability to influence the voters’ choice of candidate is very minimal. The candidates’ rankings in election surveys, meanwhile, do not influence media’s coverage of their campaigns.


Fuggan, M. & Perez, J. (2011). ‘Surveying Surveys’: An analysis of public opinion surveys and its effects on the 2004 and the 2010 presidential and vice-presidential election results, Unpublished Undergraduate Dissertation, University of the Philippines, College of Mass Communication

KEY WORDS: opinion polls, election, survey


Subject Index : Public opinion polls, Exit polling (Elections) --Philippines

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